If One in Four Gay, Have Another Kid

By Richard Bruce BA, MA, and PhC in Economics
Former Instructor St. John's University, New York City

If a High Percentage are Gay
Families Need to Have Extra Children

Polls show that the public thinks a quarter of the population is gay. Gay activists and their liberal allies have pushed a more reasonable ten percent figure. The actual numbers are a little over one percent. This is a cause of great frustration for conservatives and religious people, but here is a simple solution.

If a large percentage of the population are homosexuals, many of whom are not having children, then the heterosexual couples can have a lot more children without increasing the population. The Quiverfull Movement, which encourages Christians to have large families, is not the problem, it is part of the solution. This is a conclusion that the liberals will not like.

More generally if your opponent insists on believing and repeating unrealistic numbers and other facts, figure out how their lies justify policies and behaviors that they will not like. This may encourage a more realistic view.

The Detailed Argument

It is commonly known that we need 2.1 babies per woman to reproduce the race. This is because more boys are born than girls, and some people die before reaching child-bearing age. Actually, the 2.1 figure is not exactly right. It is too high for the most advanced nations, not high enough for many developing nations, but like most writers, I will use it anyway.

About twenty percent of couples in America are infertile. If the number of boy babies was exactly to the number of girls, and everyone married and tried to have children then you would need 2.5 children per fertile couple. Add in the problem of more boys than girls and people dying before child bearing age and you get about 2.6. Since many infertile couples no doubt divorce and the fertile member remarries the number will be somewhat less than this.

On the other hand, many people who are heterosexual and fertile decide not to have children for various reasons so for the sake of illustration and ease of calculation let us say we need three children per couple that is both fertile and willing to have children.

If a quarter of the population is gay, as the average person incorrectly believes, and they did not produce children then we would need an average of about four children for every fertile heterosexual couple that was willing to have children. So we would need one more child per couple to maintain a constant population.

The Cost of an Extra Child

Given the huge cost and effort involved in raising an extra child, this might encourage people to look at things more realistically.

The ten percent figure preferred by gay activists and their liberal allies means that the fertile couple will on average need less than half an extra child, but it is still a big issue.

If the real figure, which is a little over one percent, is accepted then homosexuality becomes a minor factor.

Numerical Jujitsu

There may be many other possibilities for using this type of statistical jujitsu in today's media environment. In the martial jujitsu, the fighter uses the opponent's weight and momentum against him. In this statistical jujitsu, you use the opponents false numbers against him.

In today's media environment there are many channels. This allows people to live in their little bubbles where they only hear opinions that agree with their own. The result is that people often have radically different views of reality. We need techniques to cut through these fabricated realities and this type of statistical analysis may help liberals, conservatives, libertarians, religious people, secularists, and many other cut through the falsehoods.

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Last updated July 16, 2020