This is a list of countries with more than a million population that are considered free by Freedom House and high income or developed by World Bank in 2013. High income countries are considered developed by the World Bank. There are other standards, but one might consider this a list of 1st World countries. They have arrived and history suggests their status is permanent.
List of the 34 Developed Democracies
with Populations Greater than One Million
- Czech Republic
- Korea (South)
- New Zealand
- United Kingdom
- United States
Why is this Important?
Why is it important which countries are economically developed democracies? Developed democracies have three important virtures. First, they are politically stable. No dictator has ever managed to seize power in a country that has achieved developed democracy status. Second, their economies do not suffer serious declines, they are economically stable. And third, they do not fight wars with each other, as a group they are internationally stable.
Because of the political and economic stability, once an economically developed democracy always an economically developed democracy. Because they never fight wars with one another a world in which all the countries are developed democracies would be a world at peace. So the fact that a country is a developed democracy is important for the people of that nation, they and their children will live in a free and prosperous nation. It is also important to the rest of the world because it is another step toward a long term world peace.
Let us examine this in a little more detail.
The richer a democracy becomes the less likely that a dictator will be able to seize power. I am arguing that once a democracy reaches GNI 12,746 in 2013 dollars, the threshold for high income or developed according to the World Bank, they are very likely to remain a democracy. As far as I have been able to determine there are no counter examples.
But there is nothing magic about this number. As democracies become richer the probability they will fall to a dictator decreases. By the time they are declared developed the probability is so low it has never happened.
The richest non-oil rich democracy that I have found that was taken over by a dictator was Argentina, which was about two thirds the threshold. Argentina was and still is highly dependent on natural resource exports. Natural resource exports frequently change drastically in price, so a country relying on them can suffer a disastrous decline. Industrial exporting countries tend to be more stable.
Germany was the richest industrial exporting country that has fallen to a dictator. When Hitler seized power in 1933 Germany was probably no more than half the World Bank's threshold for developed nations. Of course I am referring to the recent threshold, the World Bank, and the threshold did not exist in 1933. Every country with more than a million people in the world would have been below the threshold for developed nations. Germany was somewhat richer just before World War 1 than any time between the end of the war and Hitlers take over, but I do not think it was richer than half of what we now call a developed nation.
This is important today because China may well have passed where Germany was when Hitler took over. As China is definitely an industrial exporting nation we can now say that it is probably richer than any industrial exporting democracy which was taken over by a dictator. If China becomes a democracy in the near future, the survival of that democracy is nearly certain.
More generally we can safely say that high income democracies are likely to stay democracies, with one big exception. Oil rich countries do not follow these rules. Or alternatively you could say they are an extreme case of the economic and political instability of natural resource producers in general. The point is they are not necessarily democratic or stable. So it seems very likely that all the countries on the list above will avoid dictatorship with the exception of oil rich Trinidad and Tobago. Not that I am saying Trinidad and Tobago is doomed, I know little about it. I am just saying their success is not as certain.
I would not be so sure of the political stability if developed democracies were not so economically stable, but they are. Of course, developed democracies can suffer recessions where the income per capita declines a percentage point or two, but generally the direction is up. Furthermore, some developed democracies, Japan, Sweden and Finland, have suffered a lost decade of growth, and indeed now much of the industrial world is currently suffering what may become a lost decade of growth, but once again no huge declines of the type that might threaten their stability. Even though many nations have suffered in the current recession I might note than none have been taken over by dictators, and most remain stubbornly at the highest level of freedom and democracy according to the Freedom House ratings.
Once again, oil rich countries are not as stable as countries with broad based exports because the price of oil can rise and fall dramatically. Saudi Arabia is currently a high income country, but it can move from upper middle income to high income and back depending on the price of oil. The same is true of Trinidad and Tobago, which is on the list. It was not on the list in 2005 but I believe it was in some earlier years.
It has long been said that the Canadian American border is the longest undefended boarder in the world. One of my high school teachers begged me not to join the foreign service. He warned, "We will have a war with Canada." A nice insult, he was pretty good at that. But it illustrates the point, economically developed democracies do not fight wars against one another.
Actually even developing nations are pretty good at keeping the peace these days. We have come a long way since the Middle Ages when the average country was at war with one of its neighbors in half of all years. If we were like the countries of the Middle Ages we might be a peace this year, at war with Canada the next, then another year of peace, followed by a war with Mexico, and so on. Today almost all nations do better than that. Iraq under Saddam being the only recent exception.
On the other hand they did not have nuclear weapons in the Middle Ages. So our search for peace takes on an urgency that it did not have back then. We naturally want to achieve a high level of certainty that those nuclear weapons that remain will "rust in peace."
Growth of Total Population of the Developed Democracies
The population growth of high income or developed countries is .7 percent a year according to the World Bank. The population growth of the whole world is 1.2 percent. So the First World would be falling behind at something like .5 percent a year if developing nations were not becoming developed democracies. But the addition of many nations between 2005 and 2012 has more than made up for slower population growth of the developed democracies.
With future additions like Brazil, Mexico, China, and eventually India and most of the rest of the developing nations the population of the developed nations will grow much faster than world population as a whole and I expect most countries to have developed economies some time in the second half of this century. I have a web page on the growth of Third World nations to First World status. here.
Near Misses-High Income and Partially Free
Singapore and Kuwait have high incomes but they are partially free according to Freedom House. Naturally lovers of freedom will find this disappointing, but lovers of peace might note that we do not have serious military conflicts with countries that are partially free.
In fact it is normally the countries with the lowest scores, 7, that the United States and the West have difficulties with. This group includes Cuba, Libya, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Syria. We also have had some difficulties with the next three higher levels, China at 6.5, Iran at 6, and Russia at 5.5, but our problems are concentrated with the lowest scores, the sevens.
So if one was just considering the issue of peace, and that is a pretty central issue, one could justify including the partially free.
Upper Middle Income and Freedom
One might also note that freedom is doing fairly well even among the upper middle income countries. In 2009 among 36 upper middle income countries with populations over a million, four have a perfect score of one from Freedom House, eighteen are listed as free, ten are partially free, eight are listed as not free.
Among the 28 countries that did not have a Muslim majority according to the CIA Factbook, four have a perfect score, eighteen are free, six are partially free, and four are not free. So even the upper middle income countries do quite well on the freedom measure if they are not Muslim.
The Muslim upper middle income countries that are not oil rich, Turkey, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Albania also do fairly well, all of them are partially free. Not ideal in the minds of the West, but probably good enough to maintain peaceful relations. All the oil rich upper middle income majority Muslim nations with more than a million population are not free.
Before you accuse me of being anti-Muslim let me mention that elsewhere on this web site I discuss the magnificent success of Muslims in avoiding AIDS and other venereal diseases and Muslims were very good at avoiding communism. As I have said elsewhere Islam has helped Muslims avoid some of the worst mistakes of Western Civilization, particularly the sexual revolution and communism.
Furthermore, the worst offenses against freedom occur in non-Muslim countries. The Muslim nations never rise to the heights of freedom achieved in the West, but they never descend to the depths of dictatorship like Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Kim Jong-il. We do not give them enough credit for this.
Muslims have often thanked me for being fair and even handed in my guest book.
Even Authoritarian Governments are Relatively Peaceful Recently
While authoritarian governments do occasionally fight wars among themselves, nevertheless, old fashioned wars of conquest have been fairly rare in recent years. Even dictatorships are pretty peaceful. Thus if our objective is peace it will frequently be a good idea to tolerate a dictatorship until it eventually becomes a democracy. Over the very long run we may find well armed, particularly nuclear, dictatorships a real problem because eventually if enough centuries pass there is likely to be a war, but it could be reasonably argued that we are too quick to resort to military action to bring down dictators.
I have an index page to my other economics pages and a brief discussion of my economics qualifications here.
I believe that all of the countries of the Third World will make it to First World status and perhaps sooner than we think. Check out my reasoning.
The percentage of the world's population in the low income countries is rapidly declining.
The economic growth rate of the developing nations doubled in the first 11 years of the new millennium compared to the last decade of the previous millennium.
In the last part of this web page I have discussed peace and developed democracy, here is another essay on this topic.
Developed democracies have not only maintained the peace, they have cooperated in very long lived alliances. These alliances are frequently older than authoritarian governments.
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